By Tanveer Ahmad Meo

Introduction

Pakistan has time and again delivered strategic surprises to the world—be it through its unexpected nuclear tests in 1998, development of MIRV-capable ballistic missiles, or its recent capacity to counter advanced military technologies deployed by hostile adversaries such as India and Israel. However, alongside these feats, the country is enduring strategic strain, manifested in the form of internal political turmoil, growing terrorism, economic distress, and foreign subversion.

In the wake of recent battlefield successes and technological countermeasures, Pakistan has demonstrated resilience against hostile efforts. However, simmering political instability, growing ideological divides, and multi-front threats continue to challenge its stability. This article analyzes the dual nature of Pakistan's current position—a state capable of strategic brilliance, yet vulnerable to internal and external sabotage.

1. Strategic Military Successes: Defying Global Assumptions
   Pakistan’s military has recently demonstrated not just deterrence but technological adaptability and operational superiority in countering high-end systems:
   a. Rafale Fighter Jet Neutralization
   Despite India's induction of French-origin Rafale fighter jets, Pakistani Air Force (PAF) has tactically outmaneuvered and neutralized the threat through electronic warfare and radar disruption techniques, especially during recent LOC/IB engagements. The Rafale's perceived superiority was undermined by ground-based defenses and integrated early warning systems deployed by Pakistan.
   b. Countering the S-400 Missile Defense System
   The much-hyped Russian S-400 air defense system, inducted by India, was assumed to provide near-impenetrable air cover. However, Pakistan successfully deployed low-observable drones, EW systems, and smart stand-off munitions to damage or bypass S-400 surveillance sectors, exposing tactical gaps in India's layered defense architecture.
   c. Defeating Israeli Drone Technology
   India's reliance on Israeli Harop and Heron drones has also been challenged. Pakistani forces intercepted and downed multiple drones, either via electronic jamming or physical takedown through shoulder-fired systems. These defeats demonstrate Pakistan's preparedness against unmanned and hybrid warfare platforms.
   Together, these operational victories have stunned global observers and reaffirmed that Pakistan’s strategic thinking and defense R&D are not to be underestimated.

2. Terrorism and Non-State Actor Threats
While strategic victories uplift morale, the internal security threat from militant organizations is rising sharply:
TTP continues cross-border attacks from Afghan soil.
ISKP/ISPP operate to provoke sectarian violence and challenge state legitimacy.
BLA/BRA in Balochistan, backed by RAW, target infrastructure and military personnel.
TTKashmir aims to reignite violence in sensitive regions like Gilgit-Baltistan.
Pakistan remains a prime target of fifth-generation warfare, where non-state actors are strategically used to create internal chaos and delegitimize state authority.

3. Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs): The Invisible Frontline
Foreign intelligence agencies, particularly India’s RAW, Mossad, and other regional actors, are actively pursuing hybrid warfare strategies:
RAW funds separatist groups in Balochistan and Sindh.
Cyber attacks, disinformation, and deepfake propaganda are deployed to target public trust in military and judiciary.
Proxy operations through Afghan territory continue to challenge border security.

The capture of Kulbhushan Jadhav was not an isolated event—it symbolized a long-term strategy of subversion. Israel’s intelligence collaboration with India has introduced sophisticated surveillance and cyber tools, but Pakistan’s counter-intelligence apparatus remains vigilant and effective.

4. Political Crisis: The Domestic Strain of Popular Uprising
A significant source of strategic strain is Pakistan's internal political instability, particularly the massive public support for former Prime Minister Imran Khan. What was initially viewed as a political movement has now evolved into:
A national demand for system-wide reforms
A rejection of dynastic politics
A challenge to the establishment's traditional control
Imran Khan’s arrest, disqualification, and the crackdown on his party (PTI) have only deepened the political divide, creating opportunities for foreign exploitation. This political chaos weakens governance, distracts from national security priorities, and fuels discontent, which extremist and separatist groups are quick to leverage.

5. Economic Crisis and Its National Security Impact
Pakistan’s sovereign debt, inflation, and dependency on international financial institutions severely limit its strategic space:
Defense spending faces constraints.
Development in restive regions is stalled, worsening alienation.
Foreign policy decisions are influenced by donor leverage.
Youth unemployment is rising—fertile ground for radical recruitment.
Without economic stabilization, no military or strategic doctrine can be sustainable.

6. Sectarianism, Separatism, and the Ideological Crisis
The spread of sectarian violence, separatist ideologies, and religious extremism further threatens Pakistan’s internal harmony:
Baloch and Sindhi separatist movements push anti-state narratives, often amplified by foreign media and social networks.
Sunni-Shia tensions are inflamed by regional rivalries (e.g., Iran-Saudi competition).
Islamist radicalism now includes calls for the establishment of Khilafat, undermining the constitutional state structure and attempting to draw Pakistan into transnational jihadi movements.

7. Strategic Strain vs. Strategic Survival
The juxtaposition is stark: while Pakistan continues to surprise the world with military brilliance and resilience, its internal cohesion is at risk. A coherent national approach must be forged:
Restore political legitimacy through free, fair elections.
Launch a counter-hybrid warfare command integrating military, cyber, and psychological defense.
Invest in intelligence modernization to preempt HIA sabotage.
De-securitize legitimate political dissent to prevent radical co-option.
Integrate economic revival into the national security doctrine.

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical fork in its national journey. The same country that defied global predictions through nuclear weaponization, strategic missile development, and defense victories against modern military technology now faces the risk of implosion through internal disunity, economic chaos, and ideological fragmentation.

Its enemies no longer rely on tanks and jets—they rely on proxies, fake narratives, sabotage, and societal polarization. If Pakistan is to preserve its strategic surprises and consolidate its global position, it must address its internal crises with the same urgency it gives to its borders.

Strategic success must now be matched with internal strength—or the surprise will be wasted, and the strain will prevail.