By Shahid Shah

Opinion | South Asia Affairs

The image of Narendra Modi embracing his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv is being sold to the world as a celebration of diplomatic friendship. But for those watching from Islamabad, and the restive border regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, this embrace carries the unmistakable chill of a strategic noose for a wider agenda.

Modi's visit to Israel, coming at a time when most world leaders have shunned Netanyahu over International Criminal Court arrest warrants for war crimes in Gaza, is not happening in isolation. It represents a dangerous convergence of interests between New Delhi, Tel Aviv, and now, most alarmingly, the Afghan Taliban. For Pakistan, this trilateral alignment threatens to open a two-front war by proxy, with terrorism as the weapon and Pakistani blood as the price.

Let us connect the dots that official narratives would prefer remain disconnected.

Since the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, an estimated $7 billion worth of American military equipment fell into Taliban hands. Night-vision goggles, Humvees, assault rifles, and even Black Hawk helicopters -- all now stockpiled in Afghan arsenals. The question Pakistan has repeatedly asked: Who is now benefiting from this arsenal?

The answer, tragically, is coming in the form of sophisticated terrorist attacks against Pakistani security forces.

Israeli NGOs such as HIAS, IsraAID, and the SHAE Foundation have been quietly operating in Afghanistan under the guise of humanitarian relief and refugee resettlement. Public records show millions of dollars allocated toward Afghan-related operations since 2021.

Meanwhile, India has reopened diplomatic channels with Kabul, with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi making a high-profile visit to New Delhi in recent months.

On the surface, these are humanitarian and diplomatic engagements. Beneath the surface, they form a network of influence that Pakistan's enemies are exploiting.

The recent surge in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, including the suicide bombing in Bhakkar, the ambush that martyred DSP Asad Mahmood in Kohat, and the Frontier Constabulary convoy attack in Karak and Bannu where personnel were burned alive, did not materialize from a vacuum.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the so-called Fitna al-Khawarij, operates with impunity from Afghan soil. Despite Pakistan's repeated diplomatic protests and intelligence-sharing with Kabul's Taliban regime, the response has been denial: "There are no TTP in Afghanistan."

Yet United Nations Security Council reports confirm what Pakistan's martyrs' families already know: thousands of TTP, Daesh, Al-Qaeda, and other terrorist fighters remain embedded in Afghanistan, receiving support from elements within the Afghan Taliban regime.

- Israel's hostility toward Pakistan

Israel's hostility toward Pakistan is not new. As the world's only nuclear-armed Muslim state, Pakistan represents an obstacle to Israeli regional ambitions. Netanyahu himself has spoken of building a "regional allaince" to counter Iran, an axis that conspicuously excludes Pakistan while embracing every other player in the region.

Now India has joined hands with Israel against Iran as well. Modi's visit to Tel Aviv will be read in Tehran as an indirect attack on Indian foreign policy neutrality. But for Pakistan, the danger is more immediate. Iran is our neighbor, our partner in regional stability. Any alignment against Tehran inevitably spills across the border.

- The timing of events tells its own story.

Soon after Modi's aircraft departed Tel Aviv, Afghan Taliban forces initiated fresh clashes with Pakistan at border posts in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces. Massive firing erupted on Pakistani positions. Pakistan responded proportionately, destroying the posts from which the aggression originated, showing restraint even in the face of provocation.

Why now?

Because the message from New Delhi and Tel Aviv to Kabul was clear: with US attention elsewhere and international focus on Gaza, the time to pressure Pakistan's western border has arrived.

Pakistan has shown extraordinary restraint. After the TTP and Daesh carried out multiple suicide bombings inside Pakistan, martyring dozens of security personnel and civilians during the holy month of Ramadan, Pakistan finally conducted precision airstrikes against terrorist hideouts in three Afghan provinces. These strikes targeted camps where attacks against Pakistan were being planned. They were necessary, measured, and justified under international law as self-defense against cross-border terrorism.

Yet the Afghan Taliban, emboldened by their new friends in New Delhi and Tel Aviv, continue to deny reality.

This brings me to a difficult but necessary observation.

Within Pakistan, there are voices, some political, some on social media, who openly cheer for this alignment. Who amplifies narratives crafted in Tel Aviv or New Delhi? Who dismiss legitimate Pakistani security concerns as paranoia.

Political differences are one thing. But aligning, knowingly or unknowingly, with forces that seek to strategically encircle your own country is another.

When you celebrate Modi's embrace of a man wanted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, remember whose blood funds those weapons. When you mock Pakistan's concerns about Afghan soil being used for terrorism, remember the families of Kohat, Bannur, and Bhakkar.

Pakistan faces an unprecedented convergence of hostile forces. On our eastern border, India arms itself with Israeli technology. On our western border, the Afghan Taliban, now diplomatically embraced by New Delhi, provides sanctuary to terrorists who kill Pakistanis. In the background, a $7 billion American arsenal sits in Afghan warehouses, waiting to be used against us.

This is not a conspiracy theory. This is the documented reality of intelligence reports, UNSC findings, and the statements of our own martyrs' families.

Modi's visit to Israel was not about peace. It was about solidifying an axis that runs from Tel Aviv to New Delhi to Kabul, with Pakistan as its target.

The question for Pakistanis is simple: Will we recognize this danger in time? Will we stand united behind our security forces who sacrifice daily to keep this nation alive? Or will we allow ourselves to be divided by those who, knowingly or not, serve the agendas of our enemies?

History will remember who stood where.

*The writer is a columnist specializing in South Asian geopolitics and security affairs. The views expressed are his own.