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Iran's 'Winning War' Turns Into Diplomatic Disaster as Gulf Allies Turn Against Tehran Over Energy Strikes

Iran's 'Winning War' Turns Into Diplomatic Disaster as Gulf Allies Turn Against Tehran Over Energy Strikes

By The South Asia Times

 

RIYADH - What began as a retaliatory campaign against US and Israeli military targets has rapidly devolved into a strategic nightmare for Iran, as its decision to strike energy facilities across the Gulf has united regional powers against Tehran and potentially reversed months of diplomatic gains.

 

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Wednesday issued an extraordinary warning, declaring oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar as "legitimate targets". Within hours, those warnings became reality, with Iranian missiles striking Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City -- the world's largest liquefied natural gas production facility -- causing "extensive damage" and large fires.

 

But the military strikes have triggered exactly what Tehran should have feared most: a unified regional backlash that threatens to transform a conflict Iran was winning politically into one where it stands isolated against its own neighbors.

 

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud delivered a blistering rebuke to Tehran Thursday, making clear that the Kingdom's patience has limits.

 

"The Kingdom will not succumb to pressure. On the contrary, this pressure will backfire," bin Farhan told reporters after a meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh, a meeting itself held under the shadow of Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted over the Saudi capital.

 

"We reserve the right to take military action if deemed necessary. When the time comes, the leadership of the Kingdom will take the required decisions. We will not shy away from protecting our country and our economic resources," he declared.

 

The foreign minister pointed to the absurdity of targeting non-combat areas: "When I see that two refineries in Riyadh were attacked today, I have to ask: what is the purpose of that? What possible military objective is achieved by targeting a refinery in a non-combat area?" 

 

His message to Tehran was unequivocal: "Iran must understand that these actions have consequences".

 

 

Doha's response was equally swift and unprecedented. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally declared Iran's military and security attachés, along with all staff in those departments, persona non grata -- giving them less than 24 hours to leave the country.

 

QatarEnergy reported that Iranian missiles caused "extensive damage" to Ras Laffan Industrial City, a facility that forms the bedrock of the Gulf state's economy. Emergency teams managed to contain the resulting fires, and no casualties were reported among workers.

 

The Qatari Foreign Ministry condemned the strike as "a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to national security and regional stability," noting that despite Doha's efforts to remain neutral, Iran had "deliberately targeted neighboring countries, posing a threat to global peace".

 

Doha also called on the UN Security Council to assume its responsibilities and act to prevent what it described as dangerous violations.

 

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese added his voice to the growing international condemnation, expressing deep concern over attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure.

 

"I'm deeply concerned by attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure, including the latest overnight in Qatar," Albanese said. "We condemn Iran's ongoing and reckless reprisal attacks in countries across the region who are not parties to this conflict. We do not want to see the conflict escalate further".

 

The Australian leader confirmed that an Iranian projectile had struck near Australia's headquarters at the Al Minhad airbase in the UAE, damaging an accommodation block and a medical facility . While no Australian personnel were injured, the strike underscored how Iranian actions are now directly affecting nations not party to the original conflict.

 

- Why Iran's Strategy Is Backfiring

 

The critical question is why Iran would choose to target energy facilities in neighboring countries -- an act that appears to be transforming a winning political position into a diplomatic disaster.

 

Before Wednesday's strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, Iran was arguably winning the information war. Global public opinion, including significant portions of the American public, had grown skeptical of US and Israeli military action against Iran.

 

The February 28 strikes that killed more than 1,300 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, were widely viewed as an unprovoked escalation.

 

Iran's retaliatory strikes on US military bases in the region were seen by many as legitimate self-defense against an aggressor. The narrative favored Tehran: a sovereign nation responding to attacks on its territory and leadership.

 

By expanding targets to include civilian energy infrastructure in countries not directly participating in the conflict, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, Iran has fundamentally altered the calculus.

 

 

Iran's strikes on Gulf energy facilities may have been intended to pressure the international community by disrupting global oil and gas supplies. Oil prices surged to $110 per barrel following the attacks. But this pressure applies to everyone, including nations that might otherwise have remained neutral or even sympathetic to Iran's position.

 

When Saudi Arabia's foreign minister asks what military objective is served by hitting Riyadh refineries during a diplomatic meeting, the answer is: none. These strikes serve no tactical military purpose. Their only effect is to alienate precisely those countries whose neutrality or sympathy Iran needs.

 

Thursday's meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh, attended by Turkey, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, and Syria, was itself a signal. These nations gathered under the shadow of Iranian missiles to coordinate their response to a common threat.

 

Saudi Arabia's defense ministry announced it had downed four ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, with debris falling near a refinery south of the city. The fact that interceptors were seen firing near the hotel where diplomats met underscored the immediacy of the threat.

 

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister made clear that diplomatic options remain the preferred path, but the threshold for military action has now been explicitly stated.

For Iran, the strategic miscalculation could not be more costly. A conflict that had galvanized regional sympathy for a nation under attack has now united Gulf states against a common aggressor, one targeting their economic infrastructure and civilian areas.

 

As bin Farhan concluded: "This pressure from Iran will backfire politically and morally".

 

The question now is whether Tehran will recognize its error before the region plunges into an even wider war, one where Iran faces not just the US and Israel, but its own neighbors.

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