By Mashal Khan 

ISLAMABAD - 

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has issued a stark warning to India over the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), declaring that "every drop of water" is a "red line" for Pakistan and that any attempt to deprive the country of its water rights will be met with a forceful response.

Speaking at a ceremony in Islamabad marking the inauguration of the Yadgar-i-Fatah monument on the eve of Pakistan's 80th Independence Day, Sharif emphasised that while Islamabad desires peace, its commitment to peace should not be mistaken for weakness . "Pakistan wants peace, not war, and that desiring peace should not be perceived as a sign of weakness," he stated, adding that the nation is "resolute for peace" with dignity and determination.

The Prime Minister's comments come amid heightened tensions over water security, following India's unilateral decision to hold the IWT in abeyance in April last year. The move came after an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir's Pahalgam that killed 26 people, which New Delhi blamed on Islamabad—an allegation Pakistan has consistently denied.

Sharif warned that any challenge to Pakistan's sovereignty or defence would trigger an even more robust response than during the military confrontation between the two nations in May 2025. "If anyone challenges Pakistan's sovereignty and defence, they will receive an even stronger reply than in May 2025," the premier declared, referring to the four-day cross-border armed clashes that ended with a US-brokered ceasefire.

The May 2025 conflict saw India launch deadly air strikes in Punjab and Azad Kashmir, to which Pakistan responded by downing five Indian fighter jets in air-to-air combat. The brief war resulted in civilian casualties and significant material damage on both sides.

The Prime Minister also criticised India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, describing it as a move taken after what he termed India's "defeat" in May. "I warn that every drop of water is our red line. If India does not keep on the right track, we will give it a direct response," Sharif cautioned.

Pakistan's position has received significant legal backing from international forums. The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) has ruled that the IWT cannot be unilaterally suspended or revoked, noting that the treaty contains no provision for such action and remains in force until both parties mutually agree to withdraw from it . The court has consistently affirmed Pakistan's rights under the treaty, issuing rulings that constrain India's ability to control water flows on the western rivers allocated to Pakistan.

For Pakistan, the Indus Waters Treaty is not merely a technical agreement but a matter of national survival. The country's agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods—upon which 80% of its irrigated agriculture depends—are tied to the Indus River system. The three western rivers allocated to Pakistan under the treaty—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—are vital lifelines for the nation's economy and population.

Information Minister Attaullah Tarar has reiterated that the treaty "cannot be unilaterally revoked, abolished or amended," adding that Pakistan's position has gained international support. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have warned that any attempt to change the flow of cross-border waterways would be considered an "act of war" .

The water dispute has broader implications for regional stability. Pakistan's Foreign Office has warned that India's moves to advance projects like the Chenab-Beas Link Tunnel Project—which would divert water from the Chenab basin into the Beas system—constitute a grave violation of both the IWT and international water law.

Military officials from Pakistan have stated that the country's "resolute response" during the May 2025 conflict effectively debunked the notion of space for war in South Asia, while warning that continued Indian militarisation and the absence of robust crisis management mechanisms continue to undermine regional stability.

Pakistan has pursued a multi-pronged legal strategy to defend its water rights, including cases before the Permanent Court of Arbitration, engagement with international forums, and raising the issue before the United Nations . Experts have suggested that Pakistan should pursue "legal encirclement" across multiple forums to deter unilateralism and protect civilians, including invoking the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice